Global LNG exports are expected to continue expanding over the next two years, according to a new market analysis from Poten & Partners. While easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have improved vessel traffic, European storage refilling, Asian demand and seasonal weather patterns are expected to remain the main drivers of LNG trade and market balances.
A peace agreement between the US and Iran signaling an end to the war, prompting greater vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, was the dominant factor affecting markets in June 2026. A few other factors, including inventory level management and weather in key importing regions, are also impacting LNG demand. Please note, the forecasts have been extended through 2028.
Europe has seen the largest decline in imports in 2Q 2026 over 1Q 2026 when the war in Iran disrupted LNG supply. European LNG imports are forecast to increase in 3Q and 4Q 2026 on the need to refill storage levels and increased winter demand, but a sustained heatwave in Asia, and the El Niño warmer weather pattern, may limit Europe’s rush to import more LNG over that period.
Conversely, LNG imports for Southeast Asia increased by 1 MMt in 2Q 2026 to 8.7 MMt compared to 1Q 2026, showing the highest quarter-on-quarter growth.
Driven by high summer temperatures and cooling demand, LNG imports for Asia have grown to a daily average of 743,110 t/d in June 2026 from 643,170 t/d in April, with much of the increase driven by Northeast and South Asian buying. In South and Southeast Asia, the monsoon season typically offers temperature relief around this time of year, resulting in lower cooling demand.
However, the monsoon season arrived late in 2026 and has been much weaker than historical norms, likely leading to hotter and drier conditions. As a result, LNG imports for South Asia are forecast at 9.6 MMt in 3Q 2026, up from 9 MMt in 1Q. In Southeast Asia, Singapore and Indonesia are driving the rise in daily average imports in June 2026, while imports are declining in Thailand.
Global LNG exports are forecast to increase from roughly 428 MMt in 2026 to about 511 MMt by 2028, driven by rising output and capacity expansions in the US and Canada, as well as recovering supply growth in the Middle East. West Africa is forecast to see around 6% growth in LNG exports and Russia around 10% growth over the same period.
Southeast Asian exports are expected to fall from 142.6 MMt in 2026 to 133 MMt by 2028 as Malaysia and Indonesia grapple with rising domestic demand and declining natural gas reserves.
Source: Poten & Partners, LNG Market Outlook, June 2026.
