NYMEX Rolls Over

(Gelber, September 28) November natural gas is rolling into the front position today and plunging lower, as current market weakness begins to weigh on early winter sentiment.

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November is currently down 22.5 cents (8%) to $2.57/MMBtu, and similarly strong 12-16 cent losses are also carrying through December to March futures contracts.

Further downward pressure is likely in the near-term until the new front month aligns with continued weakness in spot markets that held that held the October contract down to its $2.10/MMBtu expiration.

Although weather-driven demand is expected to find support from below-normal temperatures going into October, mild temperatures by days 8-15 will begin to cap total degree days (and demand) below historical averages (see forecast in chart).

Source: Gelber & Associates

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