Natural gas futures: prompt month remains above $9.00/MMBtu

NYMEX front-month natural gas futures closed at fresh 2022 highs during midweek trading as prices crested at $9.677/MMBtu on Wednesday as speculators added more long positions despite conflicting bearish fundamentals in the marketplace.

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This morning (Thursday), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish its weekly natural gas storage data report for the week ended August 12. Market estimates are for a storage build that is wide-ranging from as little as 19 Bcf to as much as 45 Bcf.

We are projecting a 26 Bcf storage build. The smallish build was the result of a significant dip in wind power generation over the course of the reflective storage week.

In terms of how NYMEX front-month gas futures might respond to the outcome of the storage data, a build of less than 21 Bcf will likely be construed as bullish and could send NYMEX futures up toward the $9.70s/MMBtu or higher.

Conversely, a storage injection of greater than 30 Bcf will probably be viewed as bearish, possibly triggering a sell-off back toward $9.00/MMBtu or perhaps lower.

Source: Gelber and Associates