US natural gas prices eased as warmer weather reduced demand, even as LNG feed gas remained strong.
April Henry Hub is trading at $2.94/MMBtu, back below the $3 handle as a milder forecast and weaker oil prices pull the prompt month lower and shift attention back to spring fundamentals.
The biggest demand driver is a much warmer weather run that removed around 24 Bcf from two-week demand guidance as HDDs fade into late March, while the main offset remains LNG feed gas holding at 20.3 Bcf/d.
On the supply side, Lower 48 production has rebounded to 110.3 Bcf/d and Canadian imports have improved to 4.1 Bcf/d, adding to the sense that available supply is rebuilding as spring begins.
The cleaner way to frame today’s fundamental balances is that LNG is still supportive, but it is no longer the dominant story.
A warmer national pattern is cutting residential and commercial demand faster than exports are tightening the market, and the rebound in production is reinforcing that shift.
Unless weather guidance turns colder again or export demand moves materially higher, the setup favors a softer shoulder-season tone, with rallies likely to struggle once the market runs into the reality of lighter weather demand and better supply availability.
Source; Gelber & Associates
