Natural gas prices rose sharply in Asia and Europe last week amid tightening LNG supply, Middle East geopolitical tensions and colder winter forecasts. JKM and TTF climbed above USD 30/MBtu, while Henry Hub declined as warmer U.S. weather forecasts weakened heating demand expectations.
The Northeast Asian assessed spot LNG price JKM (December delivery) for last week (19–23 October) rose to high-USD 31s/MBtu on 23 October from high-USD 29s/MBtu the previous weekend (16 October).
At the beginning of the week, JKM climbed above USD 30/MBtu amid growing concerns over a tightening supply-demand balance driven by supply risks related to tensions in the Middle East and forecasts that winter temperatures in Europe would be colder than normal.
On 20 and 21 October, it was flat to slightly lower as winter procurement activity by Northeast Asian buyers temporarily slowed.
However, JKM resumed its upward trend thereafter, supported by stronger prompt demand from China, South Korea and India, as well as increased concerns over securing winter supply amid continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, reaching high-USD 31s/MBtu on 23 October.
METI announced on 21 October that Japan’s LNG inventories for power generation as of 18 October stood at 2.54 million tonnes, down 0.10 million tonnes from the previous week.
The European gas price TTF (November delivery) for last week (19–23 October) rose to USD 30.8/MBtu on 23 October from USD 28.9/MBtu the previous weekend (16 October).
At the beginning of the week, TTF declined and fell below USD 28/MBtu on 20 October after reports emerged of mediation efforts aimed at ending the Middle East conflict, prompting some traders to take profits.
Thereafter, however, it strengthened amid supply disruptions at Norway’s Troll and Asgard gas fields, forecasts of lower temperatures across Europe and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising sharply to USD 30.8/MBtu on 23 October.
According to AGSI+, EU-wide underground gas storage was 74.6% on 23 October, up from 74.3% the previous weekend, down 10.6% from the same period last year, and down 16.6% from the five-year average.
The first net withdrawal of the winter season was recorded on 20 October.
The U.S. gas price HH (November delivery) for last week (19–23 October) fell to USD 2.6/MBtu on 23 October from USD 3.1/MBtu the previous weekend (16 October).
Throughout the week, HH remained under pressure as forecasts called for above-normal temperatures across much of the United States, reducing expectations for heating demand.
As a result, it declined by approximately 15% from the previous weekend.
The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on 22 October showed U.S. natural gas inventories as of 16 October at 3,644 Bcf, up 77 Bcf from the previous week, down 4.0% from the same period last year, and 1.0% above the five-year average.
Source: JOGMEC
Updated: 26 October 2026
