Gelber & Associates’ early storage outlook predicts a 78 Bcf injection for the week ending in 9/17. This storage prediction is 4 Bcf higher than the 5-year average at 74 Bcf.
Slow, gradual increases in production post-Ida accompanied by a nearly 1 Bcf/D decrease in LNG exports on the week of storage are anticipated to push the storage number upwards.
Visibility around losses in industrial demand in the Gulf Coast has been hazy at best; however, despite the lack of clarity, these losses are also expected to have a positive impact on storage.
Finally, though it has been less impactful in recent weeks, rising wind generation during the week of storage also limited natural gas demand in the PJM, MISO, SPP, and ERCOT ISOs. Lower weather-driven demand in the next few weeks is expected to drive storage injections in the future upwards, and there is a possibility that given current weather forecasts hold, future injections within the next four weeks will lighten the deficit between the five year total working storage inventory and 2021 total storage.
Source: Gelber & Associates