The challenge ahead: global gas supply is set to tighten further in 2023, as the limited LNG liquefaction capacity additions won’t be sufficient to offset the shortfall is Russian piped gas supplies to the EU.
Russian piped deliveries to the EU are set to further fall by 35 bcm in 2023, assuming that flow rates seen in Q4 2022 persist.
There is obviously downside risks to that, especially when considering Russia’s shelling on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Global LNG supply is expected to increase in the range of 20-25 bcm, hence not enough to offset the shortfall in Russian gas deliveries.
This LNG forecast assumes Freeport returning at the beginning of 2023 (still to be seen) and improving feedgas availability in Egypt, Nigeria and Trinidad&Tobago.
Besides this, global gas supply additions will be limited… with Russia ramping-up its piped deliveries to China by 6 bcm and Algeria making an effort to supply a few additional bcms to Europe.
Hence, the picture remains tight for 2023, even though mild weather seems to be a good (and temporary) painkiller for high gas prices…
What is your view? How will the global gas market evolve in 2023?
Source: Greg MOLNAR