India’s LNG imports are set to grow structurally through the end of the decade as the country locks in long-term supply from Qatar and the United States while keeping limited exposure to spot markets. According to new analysis from Cedigaz, India’s evolving LNG portfolio is less likely to compete directly with Europe for spot cargoes and instead is influencing global supplier behaviour, contract structures, and portfolio optimisation strategies
India is pursuing a three-layer LNG procurement strategy anchored by long-term contracts with Qatar, supplemented by US-indexed and portfolio LNG, with spot purchases providing residual flexibility. LNG imports are expected to rise from around 26 mtpa in 2024 to roughly 46 mtpa by 2030, driven primarily by fertilisers and fast-growing city gas distribution demand, while domestic gas production remains limited.
At the same time, India’s green hydrogen ambitions are unlikely to materially displace gas demand before 2035.
While policy targets envision up to 5 mtpa of green hydrogen production by 2030, more realistic expectations point to closer to 3 mtpa, with grey hydrogen continuing to dominate refinery and fertiliser use.
For Europe, the impact of India’s LNG and hydrogen strategy is indirect. As India increases long-term contract coverage, its spot market exposure declines, reducing direct competition with Europe even during periods of tight supply.
Instead, India is emerging as the global LNG demand “growth hedge,” while Europe increasingly serves as the system’s flexibility sink — shaping how suppliers balance portfolios, pricing benchmarks, and long-term contract design over the next decade.
Source: Cedigaz — India’s LNG Portfolio and Hydrogen Shift: Market Signals for Europe
Additional reading:
India’s LNG strategy: diversifying imports for energy security and affordability
