Natural gas prices rose sharply this week as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted LNG markets and increased volatility across global gas benchmarks. The move in natural gas prices was driven by supply concerns affecting Asia, Europe and the United States.
The Northeast Asian assessed spot LNG price JKM (April delivery) for last week (2 – 6 March) rose to low-USD 20s/MBtu on 6 March from high-USD 10s/MBtu the previous weekend (27 February). JKM surged to low-USD 15s/MBtu on 2 March amid rising supply concerns following escalating tensions in the Middle East after Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran starting on 28 February.
On 3 March, the price jumped by more than USD 10 to mid-USD 20s/MBtu after an air strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan industrial area forced the shutdown of LNG export facilities, marking the highest level in more than three years. Prices then declined from 4 March onward as market sentiment eased following announcements of U.S. naval escorts for tankers and the potential provision of reinsurance by the U.S. government, as well as expectations of increased inflows of U.S. LNG cargoes into the Asian market.
JKM eventually fell back to low-USD 20s/MBtu on 6 March. METI announced on 4 March that Japan’s LNG inventories for power generation as of 1 March stood at 2.19 million tonnes, up 0.19 million tonnes from the previous week.
The European gas price TTF for last week (2 – 6 March, April delivery) rose to USD 18.1/MBtu on 6 March from USD 11.1/MBtu the previous weekend (27 February). TTF surged to USD 18.5/MBtu by 3 March on heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reports of LNG production stoppages in Qatar.
Although prices fell to USD 16.7/MBtu in the middle of the week amid forecasts of warmer temperatures and limited near-term demand growth, they rose again toward the end of the week due to declining underground gas storage levels and concerns that the Middle East crisis could persist.
According to AGSI+, the EU-wide underground gas storage was 29.4% on 6 March, down from 30.1% the previous weekend, down 20.5% from the same period last year, and down 32.1% over the five-year average.
The U.S. gas price HH for last week (2 – 6 March, April delivery) rose to USD 3.2/MBtu on 6 March from USD 2.9/MBtu the previous weekend (27 February). HH rose to USD 3.1/MBtu on 3 March amid expectations that heightened tensions in the Middle East could increase demand for U.S. LNG exports.
Prices briefly declined on 4 March due to forecasts of mild weather in the eastern part of the U.S., but rose again later in the week on stronger than expected withdrawals from gas storage and rising global energy prices, reaching USD 3.2/MBtu on 6 March.
The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on 5 March showed U.S. natural gas inventories as of 27 February at 1,886 Bcf, down 132 Bcf from the previous week, up 6.5% from the same period last year, and down 2.2% over the five-year average.
Source: JOGMEC
Updated: 9 March 2026
