Market Extends Recovery

NYMEX is trading green across the board as additional cool changes to weather forecasts bring positive sentiment back into the market this week.

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With today’s four and six-cent gains, the December contract has recovered to $2.75 and January is trading near $2.88/MMBtu.

Warmth remains the rule at the front end of weather forecasts and will limit demand for the next several days.

However, expectations for heating demand going into early December have taken further strides forward today with forecasts for below-normal temperatures extending from the South Central to the East in about a week’s time.

As pictured in the chart, residential and commercial, power, and industrial heating demand will climb above normal by December 1st and continue to hug that standard for at least the following week.

As a result of stronger heating demand expectations, storage withdrawals next month have been adjusted downward and are taking on a more supportive look. However, the market must still process bearish withdrawals for the next couple of weeks as the remainder of November’s mild weather moves through.

Source: Gelber & Associates

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