Qatar LNG has announced that they will increase their LNG export capacity to 142 mtpa, 16 mtpa higher than the previous objectives (126 mtpa).
This follows an investigation about additional reserves in the North Field; Qatar announces that they have 2000 tcf of gas reserves (more than twice what is reported by EI and other organisations – the difference between “proved” reserves and reserves maybe?)
This will boost global LNG capacity FID’ed to just above 300 bcm, considering everything that Qatar has announced as FID. The gap between supply and demand in Shell latest LNG outlook is getting even smaller post 2030 – possibly no gap before 2035.
By 2030, Qatar will still remain behind the US in terms of capacity (~40 bcm lower).
That still does not solve the contracting problem, now there is an additional 16 mtpa to sell, on top of ~half of the capacity of NFS/NFE expansion still to be sold and their part in Golden Pass.
That will likely be partly solved with new partners to be found (more IOCs – other IOCs? More Chinese? others?).
Some may say this is a very “timely” announcement considering what is happening in the US. I doubt they had starting the investigation on reserves recently though, I see that more as a reaction to the number of FIDs taken in the US since Feb 2022. Even with that capacity, Qatar remains LNG exporter number 2 behind the US.
Not a word (yet?) on methane emissions and making these LNG investments cleaner.
They have now almost over 220 years worth of LNG exports (based on the reserve number), taking into account the limited pipeline exports and domestic market. It seems unlikely that they would ever use it all.
In addition to the volumes of LNG, this development also brings large volumes of NGLs into the market by 2030 which makes the Qatari LNG even cheaper.
Qatar will be the last man standing.
Source: Anne Sophie CORBEAU
