In the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis many voices were raised calling for a new European gas strategy targeting a substantial reduction of the dependence on Russian supplies.
These requests, based on geopolitical considerations, simply fail to take the European gas reality into account. As an overall trend the European dependence on Russian gas cannot decline substantially in the foreseeable future.
Up to the mid-2020s at least 100 Bcm/y will be supplied from Russia in accordance with the existing long-term contracts and even after 2030 there will be limited options to reduce Russian supplies below this level, unless the global LNG market expands very rapidly and Asian demand does not take an increasing share of the expansion.
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