European and Asian natural gas prices continued to slide in Jan24, while North American hubs rose on the violent coldspell which hit the region in mid-January.
In Europe, TTF prices fell by 15% month-on-month to $9.5/mmbtu, despite colder weather conditions.
Strong piped gas deliveries, together with high inventory levels and improving nuclear availability weighed on gas prices, counterbalancing the effect of higher demand (up by 12% yoy on colder weather).
In Asia, JKM prices followed a similar trajectory and dropped by 25% month-on-month to an average of $10.3/mmbtu.
Spot LNG prices are now trading well-below oil-indexed price levels, which could incentivise stronger procurements on the spot market through the coming months.
The Red Sea crisis is shifting Middle Eastern LNG flows towards the Asian markets, which provided further downward pressure on gas prices in the region.
Consequently, the JKM premium over TTF tightened from $2.5/mmbtu in Dec23 to below $1/mmbtu in Jan24.
In the US, Henry Hub prices rose by 25% compared to Dec23 to average at $3.2/mmbtu.
The virulent cold spell in mid-Jan drove up US gas residential / commercial demand to all-time highs and fuelled priced volatility, with Henry Hub prices rising to a monthly high of $13/mmbtu.
More local, less liquid gas hubs displayed stronger volatility, with gas prices rising to over $25/mmbtu in the Midwest.
In Canada, AECO prices soared by 57% month-on-month to $2.2/mmbtu.
Higher space heating demand and strong piped gas exports to the US provided upward pressure on gas prices.
Source: Greg Molnar
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