LNG spot rates have risen sharply in recent weeks, in line with our base/high case trajectories. Modern MEGI vessels have recorded spot rates above $130,000/day, with some reports quoting as much as $150,000/day, for January cargoes.
These rates reflect a strong increase in gas demand and gas prices in Asia, amplified by export facility outages around the Pacific (see Marsoft’s November LNG reports) and greater tonne-mile demand as those volumes are replaced with US exports.
While spot rates have surged, TC rates have barely moved. The fourth quarter has historically seen the strongest charter rates, as LNG shipments increase to meet winter heating demand. We expect spot rates to remain strong into the first quarter of next year, and then to retreat in spring and summer.
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