Qatar LNG supply disrupted as 12.8 mtpa outage hits global market balance

Qatar LNG supply has been significantly disrupted following damage to infrastructure at Ras Laffan, forcing the shutdown of around 12.8 mtpa of export capacity, with outages expected to last three to five years.

The disruption comes at a time when Qatar exported 81.2 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, representing 18.8% of global LNG shipments, although it has now been overtaken by the United States (110.8 mt, 25.6% share) and remains just ahead of Australia (79.7 mt, 18.4% share).

Qatar’s exports grew by +5.1% y-o-y from 77.2 mt in 2024, but volumes have remained relatively flat in recent years. In terms of destination markets, Asia dominates:

• exports to China reached 19.6 mt (+6.8% y-o-y, 24.1% share),
• India 11.4 mt (+8.0%, 14.1%),
• and Taiwan 8.2 mt (+42.6%),
• while volumes to the European Union declined to 8.2 mt (-16.8%), representing just 10.1% of total exports.

The disruption has triggered force majeure on long-term contracts across key markets including Europe and Asia, while LNG prices have surged by up to 35% in a single session and doubled since late February, tightening global LNG supply and forcing buyers to compete for alternative cargoes.

Source: Bancosta Research