Analysts see the EU needing up to 160 additional LNG cargoes this winter as storage sits near 83 percent and pipeline inflows wane, increasing reliance on U.S. volumes and price volatility.
For 2025, Europe is on pace for roughly 820 tankers, lifting LNG’s share of EU gas supply to about 48%. Storage sits near 82.8% of capacity versus roughly 94.3% this time last year, and some forecasters warn inventories could exit winter around 29%, adding a risk premium to forward pricing.
With the EU preparing to phase out Russian LNG by 2027 and pipeline gas by 2028, U.S. projects are expected to supply about 70% of Europe’s LNG in 2026-2029. The upshot for near-term balances: spot LNG’s inherent volatility will matter more for Europe, and steady U.S. feedgas in the mid-16s Bcf/d underscores how new Gulf Coast capacity is already cushioning flows.
Source: Gelber & Associates
