Review of natural gas and LNG price trends

The Northeast Asian assessed spot LNG price JKM (November delivery) for last week (7 October – 11 October) rose to mid-USD 13s on 11 October from low-USD 13s the previous weekend (4 October).

In the first half of the week, the price fell to high-USD 12s as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was assessed, but in the second half of the week it rose to mid-USD 13s as buyers proceeded to replenish stocks ahead of winter, with the potential for significant price fluctuations due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

METI announced on 9 October that Japan’s LNG inventories for power generation as of 6 October stood at 2.02 million tonnes, up 0.03 million tonnes from the previous week.

The European gas price TTF for last week (7 October – 11 October) fell to USD 12.8/MBtu (November delivery) on 11 October from USD 13.3/MBtu the previous weekend (4 October).

TTF fell to USD 12.3/MBtu midweek due to stable supplies from Norway and mild weather forecasts, but later rose to USD 12.8/MBtu, partly due to unplanned maintenance at the Norwegian gas field and heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

According to AGSI+, the EU-wide underground gas storage increased to 94.9% as of 11 October from 94.4% the previous weekend.

The U.S. gas price HH for last week (7 October – 11 October) fell to USD 2.6/MBtu (November delivery) on 11 October from USD 2.9/MBtu the previous weekend (4 October).

The EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released on 10 October showed U.S. natural gas inventories as of 4 October at 3,629 Bcf, up 82 Bcf from the previous week, up 3.5% from the same period last year, and 5.1% increase over the five-year average.

Updated: 15 October

Source: JOGMEC