LNG supply growth gives Europe more leverage on methane rules

Europe’s ability to tighten methane rules without risking security is increasingly underpinned by a strong outlook for global LNG supply.

According to analysis by Rystad Energy, commissioned by EDF Europe, LNG supply growth toward the end of the decade is expected to create a more comfortable market balance, reducing exposure to individual exporting countries.

Rystad’s modelling shows that volumes capable of meeting OGMP 2.0 Level-5 methane-reporting standards could exceed 1,200 bcm by 2027—far higher than Europe’s total gas import needs.

This expanding pool of compliant gas gives Europe more room to introduce stricter methane-performance requirements without tightening the market.

The study highlights how LNG supply growth is reshaping the landscape: supporting energy security, diversifying sourcing options, and giving buyers greater leverage to demand cleaner and better-reported LNG.

Editors comment: 

According to the analysis, the United States is set to become the largest single source of gas capable of meeting top-tier OGMP 2.0 Level-5 methane-reporting standards by 2027. Rising US LNG capacity, built with modern monitoring and lower-emissions systems, accounts for the biggest share of the global increase in compliant supply.

Additional contributions come from Norway, Qatar, Australia, and future Canadian LNG, but the study highlights that US LNG alone represents the bulk of the growth.

This expanding pool of high-quality supply is a key factor behind the view that Europe can tighten methane rules without jeopardising access to competitive LNG.