The embargo isn’t stopping the U.S. LNG train

U.S. LNG hit a monthly export record in March, despite not having the world’s largest importer, China, as a customer. Exports totalled 9.2Mt, the first time any country has broken the 9Mt mark in a single month.

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This all comes despite China implementing a 15% tariff on US LNG imports in February.

As such, China is still yet to receive a US LNG cargo for the year 2025, instead re-selling any long-term contractual cargos into Europe.

The record-breaking month, which is 27% higher than the US’s February 2024 total, was primarily due to Plaquemine’s export terminal completing its ramp up stage and exporting 0.95Mt, which is near its total monthly capacity. Of this 0.95Mt exported, 0.88Mt went into Europe.

As a result, average European TTF-equivalent prices dropped 15.4% from February’s US$15.69/MMBtu, a high not seen for two years, to US$13.28/MMBtu, a level not seen since October 2023.

Unless the US experience any unforeseen outages, we expect export levels of above 9Mt to become the new floor for the US, until more capacity comes online.

Source: Commodity Insights

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