What is the impact of a Low Carbon scenario on European LNG imports ? How would the gas buyers in Europe manage their risks and contracting strategies in LNG?
To analyze this, a pair of scenarios is developed to see the net impacts using G2M2 Global Gas Market Modeling System (by RBAC).
In the alternative case, EU countries reduce to 10% of its current gas consumption level, while whole Europe reduce to 45% of its consumption by 2050.
Some highlight results:
- Europe LNG net import drops by 25% while Pipeline net imports drops by 50%, in total a net 190 BCM reduction of imports.
- Base case: Europe LNG imports market is expected to grow to around 86 millions tons (110 BCM/4.8 tcf) per year by 2050. Europe diversifies its LNG sources from Russia, North America, North and West Africa and Middle East.
- Low Carbon case: In total the LNG about 45 million tons (about 50%) versus base case.
- North America LNG import lose 2/3 of its volume in Europe, after 2035.
Source: Ning LIN
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