European gas prices rebounded slightly yesterday, torn between conflicting fundamentals (in particular weak stock levels, but hopes for an increase in Russian flows). Asia JKM prices (-3.29%, to €100.547/MWh, on the spot; +3.77%, to €98.425/MWh, for the December 2021 contract) and parity prices with coal for power generation (up thanks to the strong rise in coal prices) lent small support.
On the pipeline supply side, Russian supply was stable yesterday, averaging 265 mm cm/day. Norwegian flows were slightly down, to 341 mm cm/day on average, compared to 343 mm cm/day on Monday.
At the close, NBP ICE November 2021 prices increased by 0.540 p/th day-on-day (+0.25%), to 217.120 p/th. TTF ICE November 2021 prices were up by 48 euro cents (+0.57%) at the close, to €85.698/MWh. On the far curve, TTF Cal 2022 prices were up by 111 euro cents (+2.23%), closing at €50.993/MWh, with the spread against the coal parity price (€39.526/MWh, +3.19%) remaining almost stable.
TTF ICE November 2021 prices traded yesterday above the 20-day average, which confirms the market is still hesitant to break the uptrend. They are up this morning (coal prices increased again today in Asia, offering support), reaching the level of the 20-day High. This latter should set a resistance. But it is not excluded prices break this resistance and jump to the 5-day High. Indeed, such a rise will not automatically invalidate the wait-and-see scenario (ie prices could find a resistance around the 5-day High and drop afterwards).
Source: energy scan