The storage report is usually released by the EIA every Thursday – however, because Thursday is Thanksgiving this week, the EIA will release its final storage numbers tomorrow on 11/24 instead.
This upcoming report is expected to be the first withdrawal of the season. G&A predicts that the storage report for 11/19 will come in at -21 Bcf, around 23 Bcf higher than the five-year average.
Though several areas in the Continental U.S. – including parts of the Northeast as well as most of the West and Central Plains – actually displayed higher-than-average temperature anomalies over the week of storage, the overall temperature dip across the nation was enough to drive a withdrawal from storage.
Week over week production declined alongside Canadian imports, leading to a drop of 0.43 Bcf/d for the combined sum. On the demand side, higher LNG exports offset a decrease in Mexican exports. These non-weather-based fundamentals drove G&A’s weather-based storage estimate slightly lower to its final prediction of -21 Bcf.
Looking ahead at the next few storage injections, the rate of decline of the incoming withdrawals is relatively in line with those from the five-year average – as a result (and as displayed in the chart below), the distance between the forecasted storage lines and the five-year average remains relatively constant through the next four weeks.
Source: Gelber and Associates