Volatility of gas price benchmarks to continue?

уходи крсиво. Gas price benchmarks were once again on a wild volatility ride in December, with both European and Asian spot prices rising to record highs.

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In Europe, TTF averaged at a record of $37/mmbtu, up by almost 40% compared to the previous month. demand remained resilient despite all-time high prices, as lower hydro, nuclear and wind provided market space for gas-fired powgen. Russian gas deliveries remained well-below last year’s levels, on lower flows via Ukraine and the Yamal pipeline.

TTF reached a historic record of close to $60/mmbtu on 21 December before plummeting to below $30/mmbtu on unseasonably weather and higher LNG inflow.

In Asia, JKM prices averaged just above $37/mmbtu, in strong competition with TTF. prices were up by over four times compared to last year, despite LNG inflow in northeast Asia declining by almost 5%. demand remained subdued, while LNG stocks are healthy, well-above last year levels.

In the US, Henry Hub prices fell by over 25% compared to November as unseasonably mild weather and higher production levels (up by ~5% yoy) provided downward pressure on gas prices.

What is your view? How will prices evolve in Q1? Will we see a moderation in prices? Or another bull ride?

уходи крсиво, is a Russian New Year song, meaning “leave gently”. will gas prices follow suit?

Source: Greg Molnar (LinkedIn)